BMS FPL Draft Power Rankings
Tracks a simple Elo-style rating within each season. Every manager starts at 1500 at the beginning of each year, and ratings move after each gameweek based on H2H results and opponent strength.
Best Quick Hits
- Latest Season Power #1: Ryan Donlan (1640.3 in 2025-26).
- Highest Single-Season Peak: Ryan Donlan reached 1645.6 after 2024-25 33.
- Most Weeks At #1 In A Season: Ryan Donlan (26 weeks in 2024-25).
Season Elo Tabs
Use the tabs to switch between seasons. Each season has its own Elo chart, final power table, time-at-top table, and biggest underdog Elo wins.
Definitions and calculation notes
- Every manager starts at
1500before week 1 of each season. - This uses a standard Elo update with
K = 24. - Expected result is
1 / (1 + 10 ^ ((Opponent Rating - Manager Rating) / 400)). - Actual result is
1for a win,0.5for a draw, and0for a loss. - Updates are calculated simultaneously within each gameweek using ratings from before that gameweek.
- This first version intentionally uses only H2H result and opponent strength, with no score or margin bonus.
2025-26 Elo Movement
2025-26 Power Rankings
| Rank | Manager | Final Rating | Net | Peak | Peak Week | Low | Low Week | Avg Rank | Weeks #1 | Top 3 Weeks | Bottom 3 Weeks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Donlan | 1640.3 | +140.3 | 1640.3 | 38 | 1465.6 | 3 | 3.13 | 18 | 22 | 4 |
| 2 | Justin Miller | 1597.0 | +97.0 | 1597.0 | 38 | 1455.2 | 8 | 4.53 | 0 | 19 | 6 |
| 3 | Ryan Houseman | 1526.8 | +26.8 | 1528.3 | 10 | 1468.5 | 23 | 5.82 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| 4 | Luke Lockwood | 1517.2 | +17.2 | 1583.9 | 18 | 1499.2 | 2 | 2.66 | 10 | 29 | 0 |
| 5 | Drake Byrd | 1516.9 | +16.9 | 1558.1 | 16 | 1470.5 | 27 | 3.82 | 6 | 17 | 1 |
| 6 | Dylan Reid | 1478.8 | -21.2 | 1538.9 | 33 | 1478.8 | 38 | 4.08 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| 7 | Levi Morant | 1471.8 | -28.2 | 1494.6 | 9 | 1443.3 | 36 | 7.79 | 0 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 | Ethan Ellsworth | 1437.2 | -62.8 | 1534.4 | 3 | 1396.4 | 32 | 8.18 | 0 | 4 | 29 |
| 9 | Julius Long | 1419.0 | -81.0 | 1500.0 | 2 | 1412.8 | 34 | 8.63 | 0 | 0 | 34 |
| 10 | Alexander Chaban | 1395.0 | -105.0 | 1537.5 | 25 | 1395.0 | 38 | 6.37 | 3 | 6 | 13 |
2025-26 Time At The Top And Bottom
| Manager | Weeks #1 | Top 3 Weeks | Bottom 3 Weeks | Avg Rank | Final Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Donlan | 18 | 22 | 4 | 3.13 | 1 |
| Luke Lockwood | 10 | 29 | 0 | 2.66 | 4 |
| Drake Byrd | 6 | 17 | 1 | 3.82 | 5 |
| Alexander Chaban | 3 | 6 | 13 | 6.37 | 10 |
| Dylan Reid | 1 | 12 | 0 | 4.08 | 6 |
| Justin Miller | 0 | 19 | 6 | 4.53 | 2 |
| Ryan Houseman | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5.82 | 3 |
| Ethan Ellsworth | 0 | 4 | 29 | 8.18 | 8 |
| Levi Morant | 0 | 0 | 22 | 7.79 | 7 |
| Julius Long | 0 | 0 | 34 | 8.63 | 9 |
2025-26 Biggest Upsets
These are the largest pre-game Elo gaps where the lower-rated manager beat the higher-rated manager. The score is shown from the underdog winner's perspective.
| Week | Underdog Winner | Favorite | Elo Gap | Underdog Elo | Favorite Elo | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Ethan Ellsworth | Luke Lockwood | 135.2 | 1424.5 | 1559.7 | 42-21 |
| 19 | Levi Morant | Luke Lockwood | 116.9 | 1467.0 | 1583.9 | 48-45 |
| 35 | Julius Long | Dylan Reid | 112.6 | 1412.8 | 1525.4 | 59-52 |
| 25 | Levi Morant | Justin Miller | 101.0 | 1449.1 | 1550.1 | 66-28 |
| 37 | Levi Morant | Luke Lockwood | 99.2 | 1443.3 | 1542.5 | 37-32 |
| 17 | Levi Morant | Drake Byrd | 95.5 | 1462.5 | 1558.1 | 45-23 |
| 13 | Ethan Ellsworth | Drake Byrd | 90.5 | 1449.3 | 1539.8 | 41-39 |
| 33 | Ethan Ellsworth | Levi Morant | 87.2 | 1396.4 | 1483.6 | 60-34 |
| 27 | Levi Morant | Ryan Donlan | 83.2 | 1477.5 | 1560.8 | 66-48 |
| 21 | Ethan Ellsworth | Justin Miller | 83.1 | 1450.5 | 1533.6 | 51-35 |
| 25 | Ryan Houseman | Ryan Donlan | 81.6 | 1482.5 | 1564.0 | 39-30 |
| 25 | Julius Long | Luke Lockwood | 75.0 | 1451.2 | 1526.2 | 49-34 |
| 11 | Alexander Chaban | Drake Byrd | 71.6 | 1472.0 | 1543.5 | 42-39 |
| 4 | Levi Morant | Alexander Chaban | 71.2 | 1464.8 | 1536.0 | 62-59 |
| 27 | Julius Long | Alexander Chaban | 69.3 | 1454.9 | 1524.1 | 44-37 |
| 13 | Dylan Reid | Luke Lockwood | 68.3 | 1494.4 | 1562.7 | 45-38 |
| 23 | Alexander Chaban | Ryan Donlan | 67.7 | 1500.8 | 1568.5 | 36-34 |
| 9 | Justin Miller | Dylan Reid | 67.1 | 1455.2 | 1522.4 | 31-23 |
| 18 | Julius Long | Alexander Chaban | 58.0 | 1429.3 | 1487.4 | 43-32 |
| 24 | Ryan Houseman | Dylan Reid | 56.4 | 1468.5 | 1524.9 | 59-54 |
2024-25 Elo Movement
2024-25 Power Rankings
| Rank | Manager | Final Rating | Net | Peak | Peak Week | Low | Low Week | Avg Rank | Weeks #1 | Top 3 Weeks | Bottom 3 Weeks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Miller | 1620.8 | +120.8 | 1637.4 | 37 | 1476.8 | 7 | 2.82 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| 2 | Ryan Donlan | 1587.8 | +87.8 | 1645.6 | 33 | 1512.0 | 1 | 1.45 | 26 | 37 | 0 |
| 3 | Ryan Houseman | 1527.1 | +27.1 | 1551.4 | 36 | 1476.8 | 2 | 4.42 | 0 | 15 | 3 |
| 4 | Luke Lockwood | 1525.9 | +25.9 | 1544.3 | 33 | 1431.7 | 21 | 7.08 | 0 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | Levi Morant | 1513.1 | +13.1 | 1576.5 | 7 | 1435.6 | 27 | 5.79 | 4 | 9 | 13 |
| 6 | Julius Long | 1472.3 | -27.7 | 1554.6 | 7 | 1445.7 | 36 | 3.89 | 3 | 17 | 1 |
| 7 | Drake Byrd | 1470.1 | -29.9 | 1507.3 | 22 | 1446.9 | 14 | 6.29 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Alexander Chaban | 1448.4 | -51.6 | 1500.8 | 2 | 1420.0 | 33 | 8.87 | 0 | 0 | 34 |
| 9 | Ethan Ellsworth | 1441.3 | -58.6 | 1505.3 | 19 | 1421.2 | 35 | 7.39 | 0 | 0 | 19 |
| 10 | Dylan Reid | 1393.1 | -106.9 | 1518.6 | 16 | 1393.1 | 38 | 7.00 | 1 | 2 | 17 |
2024-25 Time At The Top And Bottom
| Manager | Weeks #1 | Top 3 Weeks | Bottom 3 Weeks | Avg Rank | Final Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Donlan | 26 | 37 | 0 | 1.45 | 2 |
| Justin Miller | 4 | 28 | 0 | 2.82 | 1 |
| Levi Morant | 4 | 9 | 13 | 5.79 | 5 |
| Julius Long | 3 | 17 | 1 | 3.89 | 6 |
| Dylan Reid | 1 | 2 | 17 | 7.00 | 10 |
| Ryan Houseman | 0 | 15 | 3 | 4.42 | 3 |
| Luke Lockwood | 0 | 6 | 20 | 7.08 | 4 |
| Drake Byrd | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6.29 | 7 |
| Ethan Ellsworth | 0 | 0 | 19 | 7.39 | 9 |
| Alexander Chaban | 0 | 0 | 34 | 8.87 | 8 |
2024-25 Biggest Upsets
These are the largest pre-game Elo gaps where the lower-rated manager beat the higher-rated manager. The score is shown from the underdog winner's perspective.
| Week | Underdog Winner | Favorite | Elo Gap | Underdog Elo | Favorite Elo | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | Alexander Chaban | Ryan Donlan | 225.6 | 1420.0 | 1645.6 | 58-54 |
| 36 | Ethan Ellsworth | Ryan Donlan | 190.2 | 1421.2 | 1611.4 | 40-25 |
| 27 | Ethan Ellsworth | Ryan Donlan | 172.2 | 1469.4 | 1641.6 | 46-44 |
| 29 | Luke Lockwood | Ryan Donlan | 145.7 | 1485.4 | 1631.0 | 47-33 |
| 38 | Levi Morant | Justin Miller | 141.0 | 1496.5 | 1637.4 | 39-37 |
| 8 | Ethan Ellsworth | Levi Morant | 135.1 | 1441.4 | 1576.5 | 40-34 |
| 37 | Drake Byrd | Ryan Donlan | 125.5 | 1467.9 | 1593.4 | 35-34 |
| 21 | Julius Long | Ryan Donlan | 119.2 | 1497.6 | 1616.7 | 46-32 |
| 36 | Alexander Chaban | Luke Lockwood | 111.7 | 1432.5 | 1544.2 | 41-33 |
| 17 | Alexander Chaban | Justin Miller | 109.0 | 1425.2 | 1534.3 | 53-48 |
| 23 | Levi Morant | Ryan Houseman | 108.8 | 1436.0 | 1544.9 | 53-33 |
| 10 | Ethan Ellsworth | Julius Long | 103.8 | 1448.7 | 1552.5 | 42-28 |
| 10 | Alexander Chaban | Levi Morant | 101.2 | 1446.2 | 1547.4 | 66-40 |
| 35 | Ryan Houseman | Ryan Donlan | 100.6 | 1526.2 | 1626.8 | 38-28 |
| 38 | Julius Long | Ryan Houseman | 84.5 | 1457.5 | 1542.0 | 34-24 |
| 8 | Luke Lockwood | Julius Long | 84.4 | 1470.2 | 1554.6 | 38-29 |
| 32 | Levi Morant | Ryan Houseman | 80.5 | 1441.9 | 1522.3 | 75-39 |
| 21 | Drake Byrd | Justin Miller | 71.4 | 1480.2 | 1551.6 | 60-38 |
| 10 | Drake Byrd | Ryan Donlan | 71.3 | 1477.8 | 1549.1 | 32-30 |
| 18 | Levi Morant | Julius Long | 67.7 | 1469.1 | 1536.7 | 56-40 |
Output Files
These are the supporting CSVs exposed for the power rankings page.
power_ranking_summary.csvpower_ranking_weekly.csvpower_ranking_upsets.csv