# BMS FPL Draft Power Rankings

Tracks a simple Elo-style rating within each season. Every manager starts at 1500 at the beginning of each year, and ratings move after each gameweek based on H2H results and opponent strength.

## Best Quick Hits

- **Latest Season Power #1**: Ryan Donlan (1640.3 in 2025-26).
- **Highest Single-Season Peak**: Ryan Donlan reached 1645.6 after 2024-25 33.
- **Most Weeks At #1 In A Season**: Ryan Donlan (26 weeks in 2024-25).

<details open>
<summary><h2>Season Elo Tabs</h2></summary>

Use the tabs to switch between seasons. Each season has its own Elo chart, final power table, time-at-top table, and biggest underdog Elo wins.

<details class="notes">
<summary>Definitions and calculation notes</summary>

- Every manager starts at `1500` before week 1 of each season.
- This uses a standard Elo update with `K = 24`.
- Expected result is `1 / (1 + 10 ^ ((Opponent Rating - Manager Rating) / 400))`.
- Actual result is `1` for a win, `0.5` for a draw, and `0` for a loss.
- Updates are calculated simultaneously within each gameweek using ratings from before that gameweek.
- This first version intentionally uses only H2H result and opponent strength, with no score or margin bonus.

</details>

<div class="power-tabs">
<input class="power-tab-input" type="radio" name="power-season-tabs" id="power-season-2025-26" checked>
<input class="power-tab-input" type="radio" name="power-season-tabs" id="power-season-2024-25">
<div class="power-tab-list" role="tablist" aria-label="Power rankings seasons">
<label class="power-tab-label" id="power-season-2025-26-label" role="tab" for="power-season-2025-26">2025-26</label>
<label class="power-tab-label" id="power-season-2024-25-label" role="tab" for="power-season-2024-25">2024-25</label>
</div>
<section class="power-tab-panel" id="power-panel-2025-26" role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="power-season-2025-26-label">
### 2025-26 Elo Movement
<div class="rating-chart-wrap" role="img" aria-label="2025-26 Elo rating movement chart">
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<text class="chart-title" x="64" y="18">2025-26 Elo Movement</text>
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<text class="axis-label" x="54" y="402.0" text-anchor="end">1350</text>
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<text class="axis-label" x="54" y="373.5" text-anchor="end">1375</text>
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<text class="axis-label" x="54" y="174.3" text-anchor="end">1550</text>
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<text class="axis-label" x="54" y="145.8" text-anchor="end">1575</text>
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<text class="axis-label" x="54" y="32.0" text-anchor="end">1675</text>
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<text class="axis-label" x="64.0" y="422" text-anchor="middle">Start</text>
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<text class="axis-label" x="387.7" y="422" text-anchor="middle">15</text>
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<text class="axis-label" x="495.6" y="422" text-anchor="middle">20</text>
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<text class="axis-label" x="603.5" y="422" text-anchor="middle">25</text>
<line class="tick-line" x1="711.4" y1="398" x2="711.4" y2="404" />
<text class="axis-label" x="711.4" y="422" text-anchor="middle">30</text>
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<text class="axis-label" x="819.3" y="422" text-anchor="middle">35</text>
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<text class="axis-label" x="884.0" y="422" text-anchor="middle">38</text>
<text class="axis-caption" x="474.0" y="446" text-anchor="middle">Week</text>
<text class="axis-caption" transform="translate(18 213.0) rotate(-90)" text-anchor="middle">Elo rating</text>
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</svg>
</div>
### 2025-26 Power Rankings
| Rank | Manager | Final Rating | Net | Peak | Peak Week | Low | Low Week | Avg Rank | Weeks #1 | Top 3 Weeks | Bottom 3 Weeks |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 1 | Ryan Donlan | 1640.3 | +140.3 | 1640.3 | 38 | 1465.6 | 3 | 3.13 | 18 | 22 | 4 |
| 2 | Justin Miller | 1597.0 | +97.0 | 1597.0 | 38 | 1455.2 | 8 | 4.53 | 0 | 19 | 6 |
| 3 | Ryan Houseman | 1526.8 | +26.8 | 1528.3 | 10 | 1468.5 | 23 | 5.82 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| 4 | Luke Lockwood | 1517.2 | +17.2 | 1583.9 | 18 | 1499.2 | 2 | 2.66 | 10 | 29 | 0 |
| 5 | Drake Byrd | 1516.9 | +16.9 | 1558.1 | 16 | 1470.5 | 27 | 3.82 | 6 | 17 | 1 |
| 6 | Dylan Reid | 1478.8 | -21.2 | 1538.9 | 33 | 1478.8 | 38 | 4.08 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| 7 | Levi Morant | 1471.8 | -28.2 | 1494.6 | 9 | 1443.3 | 36 | 7.79 | 0 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 | Ethan Ellsworth | 1437.2 | -62.8 | 1534.4 | 3 | 1396.4 | 32 | 8.18 | 0 | 4 | 29 |
| 9 | Julius Long | 1419.0 | -81.0 | 1500.0 | 2 | 1412.8 | 34 | 8.63 | 0 | 0 | 34 |
| 10 | Alexander Chaban | 1395.0 | -105.0 | 1537.5 | 25 | 1395.0 | 38 | 6.37 | 3 | 6 | 13 |

### 2025-26 Time At The Top And Bottom
| Manager | Weeks #1 | Top 3 Weeks | Bottom 3 Weeks | Avg Rank | Final Rank |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Ryan Donlan | 18 | 22 | 4 | 3.13 | 1 |
| Luke Lockwood | 10 | 29 | 0 | 2.66 | 4 |
| Drake Byrd | 6 | 17 | 1 | 3.82 | 5 |
| Alexander Chaban | 3 | 6 | 13 | 6.37 | 10 |
| Dylan Reid | 1 | 12 | 0 | 4.08 | 6 |
| Justin Miller | 0 | 19 | 6 | 4.53 | 2 |
| Ryan Houseman | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5.82 | 3 |
| Ethan Ellsworth | 0 | 4 | 29 | 8.18 | 8 |
| Levi Morant | 0 | 0 | 22 | 7.79 | 7 |
| Julius Long | 0 | 0 | 34 | 8.63 | 9 |

### 2025-26 Biggest Upsets

These are the largest pre-game Elo gaps where the lower-rated manager beat the higher-rated manager. The score is shown from the underdog winner's perspective.

| Week | Underdog Winner | Favorite | Elo Gap | Underdog Elo | Favorite Elo | Score |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 35 | Ethan Ellsworth | Luke Lockwood | 135.2 | 1424.5 | 1559.7 | 42-21 |
| 19 | Levi Morant | Luke Lockwood | 116.9 | 1467.0 | 1583.9 | 48-45 |
| 35 | Julius Long | Dylan Reid | 112.6 | 1412.8 | 1525.4 | 59-52 |
| 25 | Levi Morant | Justin Miller | 101.0 | 1449.1 | 1550.1 | 66-28 |
| 37 | Levi Morant | Luke Lockwood | 99.2 | 1443.3 | 1542.5 | 37-32 |
| 17 | Levi Morant | Drake Byrd | 95.5 | 1462.5 | 1558.1 | 45-23 |
| 13 | Ethan Ellsworth | Drake Byrd | 90.5 | 1449.3 | 1539.8 | 41-39 |
| 33 | Ethan Ellsworth | Levi Morant | 87.2 | 1396.4 | 1483.6 | 60-34 |
| 27 | Levi Morant | Ryan Donlan | 83.2 | 1477.5 | 1560.8 | 66-48 |
| 21 | Ethan Ellsworth | Justin Miller | 83.1 | 1450.5 | 1533.6 | 51-35 |
| 25 | Ryan Houseman | Ryan Donlan | 81.6 | 1482.5 | 1564.0 | 39-30 |
| 25 | Julius Long | Luke Lockwood | 75.0 | 1451.2 | 1526.2 | 49-34 |
| 11 | Alexander Chaban | Drake Byrd | 71.6 | 1472.0 | 1543.5 | 42-39 |
| 4 | Levi Morant | Alexander Chaban | 71.2 | 1464.8 | 1536.0 | 62-59 |
| 27 | Julius Long | Alexander Chaban | 69.3 | 1454.9 | 1524.1 | 44-37 |
| 13 | Dylan Reid | Luke Lockwood | 68.3 | 1494.4 | 1562.7 | 45-38 |
| 23 | Alexander Chaban | Ryan Donlan | 67.7 | 1500.8 | 1568.5 | 36-34 |
| 9 | Justin Miller | Dylan Reid | 67.1 | 1455.2 | 1522.4 | 31-23 |
| 18 | Julius Long | Alexander Chaban | 58.0 | 1429.3 | 1487.4 | 43-32 |
| 24 | Ryan Houseman | Dylan Reid | 56.4 | 1468.5 | 1524.9 | 59-54 |

</section>
<section class="power-tab-panel" id="power-panel-2024-25" role="tabpanel" aria-labelledby="power-season-2024-25-label">
### 2024-25 Elo Movement
<div class="rating-chart-wrap" role="img" aria-label="2024-25 Elo rating movement chart">
<svg class="rating-chart" viewBox="0 0 1060 520" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">
<text class="chart-title" x="64" y="18">2024-25 Elo Movement</text>
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<line class="axis-line" x1="64" y1="28" x2="64" y2="398" />
<line class="grid-line" x1="64" y1="398.0" x2="884" y2="398.0" />
<text class="axis-label" x="54" y="402.0" text-anchor="end">1350</text>
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<text class="axis-label" x="54" y="373.5" text-anchor="end">1375</text>
<line class="grid-line" x1="64" y1="341.1" x2="884" y2="341.1" />
<text class="axis-label" x="54" y="345.1" text-anchor="end">1400</text>
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<text class="axis-label" x="54" y="316.6" text-anchor="end">1425</text>
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<text class="axis-label" x="54" y="288.2" text-anchor="end">1450</text>
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<text class="axis-label" x="54" y="259.7" text-anchor="end">1475</text>
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<text class="axis-label" x="54" y="231.2" text-anchor="end">1500</text>
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<text class="axis-label" x="54" y="202.8" text-anchor="end">1525</text>
<line class="grid-line" x1="64" y1="170.3" x2="884" y2="170.3" />
<text class="axis-label" x="54" y="174.3" text-anchor="end">1550</text>
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<text class="axis-label" x="54" y="145.8" text-anchor="end">1575</text>
<line class="grid-line" x1="64" y1="113.4" x2="884" y2="113.4" />
<text class="axis-label" x="54" y="117.4" text-anchor="end">1600</text>
<line class="grid-line" x1="64" y1="84.9" x2="884" y2="84.9" />
<text class="axis-label" x="54" y="88.9" text-anchor="end">1625</text>
<line class="grid-line" x1="64" y1="56.5" x2="884" y2="56.5" />
<text class="axis-label" x="54" y="60.5" text-anchor="end">1650</text>
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<text class="axis-label" x="54" y="32.0" text-anchor="end">1675</text>
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<text class="axis-label" x="64.0" y="422" text-anchor="middle">Start</text>
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<text class="axis-label" x="171.9" y="422" text-anchor="middle">5</text>
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<text class="axis-label" x="279.8" y="422" text-anchor="middle">10</text>
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<text class="axis-label" x="387.7" y="422" text-anchor="middle">15</text>
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<text class="axis-label" x="495.6" y="422" text-anchor="middle">20</text>
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<text class="axis-label" x="603.5" y="422" text-anchor="middle">25</text>
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<text class="axis-label" x="711.4" y="422" text-anchor="middle">30</text>
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<text class="axis-label" x="819.3" y="422" text-anchor="middle">35</text>
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<text class="axis-label" x="884.0" y="422" text-anchor="middle">38</text>
<text class="axis-caption" x="474.0" y="446" text-anchor="middle">Week</text>
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<rect class="rating-hover-zone" x="700.6" y="28" width="21.6" height="370" data-tooltip="Week 30&#10;1. Ryan Donlan: 1622.5&#10;2. Justin Miller: 1601.4&#10;3. Luke Lockwood: 1514.9&#10;4. Ryan Houseman: 1512.4&#10;5. Julius Long: 1491.6&#10;6. Ethan Ellsworth: 1472.3&#10;7. Drake Byrd: 1467.0&#10;8. Levi Morant: 1451.7&#10;9. Alexander Chaban: 1451.3&#10;10. Dylan Reid: 1414.9" data-week="30" />
<rect class="rating-hover-zone" x="722.2" y="28" width="21.6" height="370" data-tooltip="Week 31&#10;1. Ryan Donlan: 1628.0&#10;2. Justin Miller: 1609.1&#10;3. Luke Lockwood: 1524.8&#10;4. Ryan Houseman: 1522.3&#10;5. Drake Byrd: 1479.8&#10;6. Julius Long: 1478.7&#10;7. Ethan Ellsworth: 1464.6&#10;8. Levi Morant: 1441.9&#10;9. Alexander Chaban: 1441.4&#10;10. Dylan Reid: 1409.3" data-week="31" />
<rect class="rating-hover-zone" x="743.7" y="28" width="21.6" height="370" data-tooltip="Week 32&#10;1. Ryan Donlan: 1639.4&#10;2. Justin Miller: 1597.8&#10;3. Luke Lockwood: 1535.2&#10;4. Ryan Houseman: 1507.6&#10;5. Julius Long: 1489.4&#10;6. Drake Byrd: 1469.4&#10;7. Levi Morant: 1456.6&#10;8. Ethan Ellsworth: 1450.7&#10;9. Alexander Chaban: 1430.7&#10;10. Dylan Reid: 1423.2" data-week="32" />
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</svg>
</div>
### 2024-25 Power Rankings
| Rank | Manager | Final Rating | Net | Peak | Peak Week | Low | Low Week | Avg Rank | Weeks #1 | Top 3 Weeks | Bottom 3 Weeks |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 1 | Justin Miller | 1620.8 | +120.8 | 1637.4 | 37 | 1476.8 | 7 | 2.82 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| 2 | Ryan Donlan | 1587.8 | +87.8 | 1645.6 | 33 | 1512.0 | 1 | 1.45 | 26 | 37 | 0 |
| 3 | Ryan Houseman | 1527.1 | +27.1 | 1551.4 | 36 | 1476.8 | 2 | 4.42 | 0 | 15 | 3 |
| 4 | Luke Lockwood | 1525.9 | +25.9 | 1544.3 | 33 | 1431.7 | 21 | 7.08 | 0 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | Levi Morant | 1513.1 | +13.1 | 1576.5 | 7 | 1435.6 | 27 | 5.79 | 4 | 9 | 13 |
| 6 | Julius Long | 1472.3 | -27.7 | 1554.6 | 7 | 1445.7 | 36 | 3.89 | 3 | 17 | 1 |
| 7 | Drake Byrd | 1470.1 | -29.9 | 1507.3 | 22 | 1446.9 | 14 | 6.29 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Alexander Chaban | 1448.4 | -51.6 | 1500.8 | 2 | 1420.0 | 33 | 8.87 | 0 | 0 | 34 |
| 9 | Ethan Ellsworth | 1441.3 | -58.6 | 1505.3 | 19 | 1421.2 | 35 | 7.39 | 0 | 0 | 19 |
| 10 | Dylan Reid | 1393.1 | -106.9 | 1518.6 | 16 | 1393.1 | 38 | 7.00 | 1 | 2 | 17 |

### 2024-25 Time At The Top And Bottom
| Manager | Weeks #1 | Top 3 Weeks | Bottom 3 Weeks | Avg Rank | Final Rank |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Ryan Donlan | 26 | 37 | 0 | 1.45 | 2 |
| Justin Miller | 4 | 28 | 0 | 2.82 | 1 |
| Levi Morant | 4 | 9 | 13 | 5.79 | 5 |
| Julius Long | 3 | 17 | 1 | 3.89 | 6 |
| Dylan Reid | 1 | 2 | 17 | 7.00 | 10 |
| Ryan Houseman | 0 | 15 | 3 | 4.42 | 3 |
| Luke Lockwood | 0 | 6 | 20 | 7.08 | 4 |
| Drake Byrd | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6.29 | 7 |
| Ethan Ellsworth | 0 | 0 | 19 | 7.39 | 9 |
| Alexander Chaban | 0 | 0 | 34 | 8.87 | 8 |

### 2024-25 Biggest Upsets

These are the largest pre-game Elo gaps where the lower-rated manager beat the higher-rated manager. The score is shown from the underdog winner's perspective.

| Week | Underdog Winner | Favorite | Elo Gap | Underdog Elo | Favorite Elo | Score |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 34 | Alexander Chaban | Ryan Donlan | 225.6 | 1420.0 | 1645.6 | 58-54 |
| 36 | Ethan Ellsworth | Ryan Donlan | 190.2 | 1421.2 | 1611.4 | 40-25 |
| 27 | Ethan Ellsworth | Ryan Donlan | 172.2 | 1469.4 | 1641.6 | 46-44 |
| 29 | Luke Lockwood | Ryan Donlan | 145.7 | 1485.4 | 1631.0 | 47-33 |
| 38 | Levi Morant | Justin Miller | 141.0 | 1496.5 | 1637.4 | 39-37 |
| 8 | Ethan Ellsworth | Levi Morant | 135.1 | 1441.4 | 1576.5 | 40-34 |
| 37 | Drake Byrd | Ryan Donlan | 125.5 | 1467.9 | 1593.4 | 35-34 |
| 21 | Julius Long | Ryan Donlan | 119.2 | 1497.6 | 1616.7 | 46-32 |
| 36 | Alexander Chaban | Luke Lockwood | 111.7 | 1432.5 | 1544.2 | 41-33 |
| 17 | Alexander Chaban | Justin Miller | 109.0 | 1425.2 | 1534.3 | 53-48 |
| 23 | Levi Morant | Ryan Houseman | 108.8 | 1436.0 | 1544.9 | 53-33 |
| 10 | Ethan Ellsworth | Julius Long | 103.8 | 1448.7 | 1552.5 | 42-28 |
| 10 | Alexander Chaban | Levi Morant | 101.2 | 1446.2 | 1547.4 | 66-40 |
| 35 | Ryan Houseman | Ryan Donlan | 100.6 | 1526.2 | 1626.8 | 38-28 |
| 38 | Julius Long | Ryan Houseman | 84.5 | 1457.5 | 1542.0 | 34-24 |
| 8 | Luke Lockwood | Julius Long | 84.4 | 1470.2 | 1554.6 | 38-29 |
| 32 | Levi Morant | Ryan Houseman | 80.5 | 1441.9 | 1522.3 | 75-39 |
| 21 | Drake Byrd | Justin Miller | 71.4 | 1480.2 | 1551.6 | 60-38 |
| 10 | Drake Byrd | Ryan Donlan | 71.3 | 1477.8 | 1549.1 | 32-30 |
| 18 | Levi Morant | Julius Long | 67.7 | 1469.1 | 1536.7 | 56-40 |

</section>
</div>
</details>

<details>
<summary><h2>Output Files</h2></summary>

These are the supporting CSVs exposed for the power rankings page.

- `power_ranking_summary.csv`
- `power_ranking_weekly.csv`
- `power_ranking_upsets.csv`
</details>